Records now fall on separate axes — gain 4.1 at NIF, 1,337 s at WEST, 150M°C at Helion — while the fairest physics yardstick, the triple product, still belongs to a 1996 experiment. A read of every fusion number this tracker holds, and what each one does and does not prove.
Records are falling fast — gain 4 at NIF, 1,000 s-plus plasmas in China and France — but engineering breakeven and a grid-connected plant are still distinct, harder steps. Our read on the gap. (Our opinion, not investment advice.)
Our read — labelled opinion, not investment advice.
NIF's climb to 8.6 MJ and target gain above 4 came less from more laser power than from better fuel capsules. We explain how high-density carbon (diamond) capsules and hohlraum quality turned a one-off ignition into a repeatable record.
NIF passed scientific breakeven in 2022 — but the lasers drew ~300 MJ from the wall to deliver 2 MJ to the target. Engineering breakeven, where the whole plant nets energy, is the bar that matters for the grid.