US laser facility; first to achieve fusion ignition (2022) and gain 4.13 (2025).
Records are falling fast — gain 4 at NIF, 1,000 s-plus plasmas in China and France — but engineering breakeven and a grid-connected plant are still distinct, harder steps. Our read on the gap. (Our opinion, not investment advice.)
NIF's climb to 8.6 MJ and target gain above 4 came less from more laser power than from better fuel capsules. We explain how high-density carbon (diamond) capsules and hohlraum quality turned a one-off ignition into a repeatable record.
NIF passed scientific breakeven in 2022 — but the lasers drew ~300 MJ from the wall to deliver 2 MJ to the target. Engineering breakeven, where the whole plant nets energy, is the bar that matters for the grid.
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