Fields

Quantum Computing

How close are we to a useful quantum computer?

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Milestone note Sep 8, 2026

Washington takes equity in quantum companies for $400M

Reached

US Department of Commerce — D-Wave, Rigetti, Quantinuum, PsiQuantum — D-Wave, Rigetti and Quantinuum each finalized $100M CHIPS and Science Act agreements with the Commerce Department on 8 Sep 2026, and PsiQuantum signed definitive documentation for $100M of its own. The condition attached to the first three is the notable part: the federal government takes a minority, non-controlling equity stake in each company. The stated work is manufacturing, not algorithms — D-Wave toward a 100,000-qubit annealer and a 10,000-qubit gate machine with 100 logical qubits; Rigetti on miniaturised readout electronics, a new cryostat architecture and high-connectivity fabrication; Quantinuum on 300 mm ion-trap wafers with GlobalFoundries and lasers with Monarch Quantum; PsiQuantum on optical switches, high-temperature single-photon detectors and packaging.

Milestone note Sep 4, 2026

Quantum sensing flies an aircraft with GPS switched off

Reached

Honeywell / Defense Innovation Unit — MagNav — An Embraer 170 flew 4 hours 23 minutes over the Pacific — Puget Sound to southern Alaska and back — with GPS unavailable, navigating on Honeywell's MagNav quantum magnetometers. The system reads the Earth's crustal magnetic signature and matches it against a map, and DIU reports it improved position accuracy by 89% against the conventional backup methods flown alongside it. Navigation data streamed to the pilots on standard tablets, so fielding it needs no cockpit rebuild. MagNav began in spring 2024 as "Transition of Quantum Sensing"; 72 companies applied and Honeywell Aerospace was selected to build the prototype. A C-17 demonstration is planned later this year. This is quantum sensing, not quantum computing — the part of the field that is already flying.

Milestone note Aug 26, 2026

A superconducting leader buys a second qubit modality

Reached

IBM / HRL Laboratories (from Boeing and GM) — IBM completed its acquisition of HRL Laboratories on 26 Aug 2026, adding silicon-spin qubits to a roadmap built entirely on superconducting transmons, along with HRL's quantum sensing, cryogenics, control electronics and packaging work. Boeing and General Motors, HRL's former owners, stay on as partners. Terms were not disclosed. Silicon spin qubits are the modality that could ride existing semiconductor fabs, which is why IBM ties it to Anderon, its quantum wafer foundry — but this buys a research program, not a working machine: IBM's shipping systems remain superconducting.

Milestone note Jun 2026

First commercially-procured quantum computer at a US national lab

Reached

IQM / Oak Ridge National Laboratory — A 20-qubit IQM Radiance system ("Pathfinder") went live at Oak Ridge National Laboratory on 16 Jun 2026 — Finnish superconducting maker IQM's first US installation and the first commercially-procured quantum computer at the lab. It is co-located with Frontier, the world's most powerful open-science supercomputer, for HPC–quantum integration in the National Center for Computational Sciences test bed. The deployment comes ahead of IQM's planned Nasdaq listing via a business combination with Real Asset Acquisition Corp. (RAAQ).

Milestone note Jun 2026

Italy's first neutral-atom quantum computer, tied to a top-10 supercomputer

Reached

Pasqal / CINECA (Italy) — Pasqal inaugurated SOL, a 140-qubit neutral-atom processor, at CINECA in Bologna — Italy's first neutral-atom quantum computer, engineered for tight integration with the Leonardo pre-exascale supercomputer (Top500 #10). Procured by the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking with Italy's research ministry, it is Pasqal's third EuroHPC-linked system after France and Germany — extending Europe's HPC–quantum integration push.

Milestone note Jun 2026

QKD that shares existing metro fiber (Clavis XG Multiplex)

Reached

IonQ — IonQ launched Clavis XG Multiplex, letting quantum-key-distribution traffic run alongside classical data on existing metropolitan fiber — so operators need not redesign, isolate or dedicate optical networks for quantum security. Paired with its Clarion KX key-exchange platform, it targets the "harvest-now, decrypt-later" threat and aims to move customers from QKD pilots to production deployment.

Milestone note Jun 2026

First state acquisition of a cat-qubit quantum computer

Reached

Alice & Bob / GENCI (France) — France's HPC agency GENCI signed a public procurement (at VivaTech 2026) for an 18-cat-qubit Alice & Bob system — the world's first formal state acquisition of error-biased cat-qubit hardware, funded via France 2030's HQI (Hybrid HPC-Quantum) initiative. It will be installed at the CEA's TGCC center (Bruyères-le-Châtel) and hybridized with the Joliot-Curie supercomputer, accessible to researchers in 2027 — billed as the first early fault-tolerant QC (eFTQC) permanently sited in a European supercomputing center.

Max physical qubits — 6,100 qubits, measured series
Analysis as of Feb 9, 2026

How close is a code-breaking quantum computer?

Logical-qubit records are climbing fast, but breaking RSA-2048 needs thousands of logical (millions of physical) qubits with low error rates held for hours. Our read: real, but not imminent. (Our opinion, not investment advice.)

Our read — labelled opinion, not investment advice.