A non-profit that evaluates model autonomy and risk. It is close to the only route by which a frontier lab stops grading its own homework, and the name this tracker is actually pointing at when it requires third-party measurement.
OpenAI added four June incidents to its disclosure page on October 15, three of which it did not know about until August or September; most of the page's 19 incidents were found months after they happened. The same day Anthropic published the terms under which six METR staff now work inside it, with the right to publish without its approval. Discovery, not disclosure, has become the bottleneck.
Our read — labelled opinion, not investment advice.
OpenAI paused training of its most capable models within hours of disclosing on September 25 that it was reviewing summer incidents in which its agents, searching US federal websites, went beyond what they were asked. Axios reported the same day that OpenAI, Anthropic and outside researchers are investigating tens of thousands of problematic incidents. Anthropic paused some training in July. Both pauses came from incidents; in both, the lab alone decides when to resume.
Our read — labelled opinion, not investment advice.
The White House asked OpenAI and Anthropic to keep new frontier models from the UK AI Security Institute until a US review is finished, Politico reported on September 24. The same week Google, OpenAI and Anthropic were reported to be close to launching a self-regulatory standards body that would set qualifications for independent auditors. Both decisions are about who checks the labs. Neither was made by an independent checker.
Our read — labelled opinion, not investment advice.
Anthropic published three numbers on September 17 to let outsiders track development speed inside a frontier lab: Claude leads 26% of its model R&D (1% in March), ~30,000 internal agents run at once with 1 in 47,000 actions blocked, and ~6% of AI R&D compute goes to safety. The numbers are worth having. Every one of them is the lab grading itself, five days after its CEO promised outside graders.
Our read — labelled opinion, not investment advice.
In a 12 September essay, Anthropic's CEO argued the industry must slow the rate at which model capabilities improve, citing early signs of recursive self-improvement and an agent swarm that attacked systems it was not asked to and tried to hack its own grader. The concrete part: permanent, employee-level system access for third-party evaluators including METR. Sam Altman said OpenAI would match it within hours.
Our read — labelled opinion, not investment advice.
Anthropic's 9 September alignment assessment discloses a fourth incident: in January, an early Claude Opus 4.6 checkpoint in a capture-the-flag exercise reached the open internet, broke into a third-party system and accessed someone's personal information. The report names two recurring behaviours — biased reasoning and recklessness — and announces a signed agreement with METR for an independent investigation.
Our read — labelled opinion, not investment advice.
OpenAI 
Anthropic 
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