Maker of ChatGPT and the GPT series. GPT-4 was the first 1e25 FLOP model; o3 first cracked ARC-AGI. A frontier-AI leader.
Frontier training compute has grown ~4–5× a year and is the clearest driver of AI's recent leaps. It is a hard, auditable number — but it's an input, not a measure of intelligence.
US private AI investment hit $109B in 2024 — then 2025's efficiency shock (DeepSeek) made the bubble question sharper, not simpler. Our read on whether capital is ahead of capability. (Our opinion, not investment advice.)
OpenAI (o3) — o3 scored 76–88% on ARC-AGI-1 (human ~85%) — the first AI to move beyond memorization on it.
OpenAI (GPT-4) — GPT-4 was the first model at the 1e25 FLOP scale; over 30 models from 12 developers have since crossed it.
OpenAI — ChatGPT reached 100M users in two months — the fastest-adopted app to date and AI's consumer inflection point.
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