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Milestone note Jul 8, 2026

xAI launches Grok 4.5 at roughly half the price of rival frontier models

xAI released Grok 4.5 at $2/$6 per million input/output tokens — versus $5/$25 for Anthropic's Opus 4.8 and $5/$30 for OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol — claiming double token efficiency. Independent evals rank it competitive but fourth on capability.

xAI released Grok 4.5 — its first major launch since going public — priced at $2 per million input tokens and $6 per million output tokens. That compares with $5/$25 for Anthropic's Opus 4.8 ($10/$50 for its top-end Fable 5) and $5/$30 for OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol. Musk pitched it as "Opus-class at a fraction of the price," crediting a claimed 2x token efficiency and training data from coding tool Cursor. Independent evaluation by Artificial Analysis ranked it fourth on overall capability — genuinely competitive, not dominant.

Why it matters

The frontier price war just moved from the budget tier to the flagship tier. If an Opus-class-adjacent model at 50–80% off holds up in real workloads, it pressures exactly the margin OpenAI and Anthropic fund their compute buildouts with — the same squeeze Microsoft is applying internally with MAI, now applied from outside. The fourth-place independent ranking is the caveat that keeps this competitive rather than decisive.

What to watch

Whether enterprise workloads actually migrate on price, and how OpenAI and Anthropic respond on flagship pricing in the launch-heavy weeks ahead.

Who's involved