What training compute does (and doesn't) tell you
Frontier training compute has grown ~4–5× a year and is the clearest driver of AI's recent leaps. It is a hard, auditable number — but it's an input, not a measure of intelligence.
Chinese open-weight model developer; drew attention for reaching frontier-class performance with far less compute.
Frontier training compute has grown ~4–5× a year and is the clearest driver of AI's recent leaps. It is a hard, auditable number — but it's an input, not a measure of intelligence.
DeepSeek / Huawei — DeepSeek's 1.6T-parameter V4 runs on Huawei Ascend (950PR), and a Huawei-led team completed full-parameter post-training on ~1,000 Ascend 910Cs — a compute-sovereignty landmark. Pre-training hardware remains undisclosed, so "trained without Nvidia" is NOT established.
US private AI investment hit $109B in 2024 — then 2025's efficiency shock (DeepSeek) made the bubble question sharper, not simpler. Our read on whether capital is ahead of capability. (Our opinion, not investment advice.)
DeepSeek (R1) — DeepSeek-R1, an openly released RL-trained reasoning model, matched leading closed models on math and coding — triggering a market reckoning over AI capex.
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