ASML raises its 2026 outlook a second time and adds 30% capacity — Intel first onto High-NA

ASML raised its 2026 revenue forecast to €43–45B, up from the €36–40B range set in April — a 16% increase at the midpoint and the second raise this year — after Q2 revenue of €9.33B and net income of €2.92B both beat estimates. CEO Christophe Fouquet called first-half orders "extremely strong" as customers accelerate capacity plans; ASML will expand its 2026 low-NA EUV capacity and DUV immersion capacity by 30% each. Intel will be the first chipmaker to manufacture with ASML's next-generation High-NA EUV tool, for its Panther Lake laptop chips.

Why it matters

ASML is the choke point every fab expansion passes through, so a second guidance raise plus a 30% capacity expansion is the closest thing the industry has to an audited forecast of the AI buildout — it corroborates the capex wave this newsroom has logged from Micron, SK hynix, TSMC-adjacent demand and Intel. The Intel High-NA detail is a real distinction: first production use of the most advanced lithography on Earth is an argument for the foundry turnaround that Intel's stock narrative needs.

What to watch

Whether order intake sustains into H2 (the guidance now assumes it), and High-NA yield data from Panther Lake — the proof point rivals will be watching.