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Milestone note Jul 16, 2026

TSMC posts a record quarter, raises capex — and pledges another $100B for US fabs

TSMC's Q2 net profit jumped 77% year on year to a record NT$706.6B (~$22B), far beating estimates. It raised 2026 capex guidance to $60–64B (from $52–56B), lifted its revenue growth forecast to over 40%, and pledged an additional $100B for Arizona — bringing total US commitments to about $265B.

TSMC reported a record NT$706.6B (~$22B) net profit for the April–June quarter, up 77% from a year earlier and far above estimates, on what CEO C.C. Wei described as runaway AI demand. Off the beat, the company moved every lever at once: full-year capex guidance rose to $60–64B from the prior $52–56B, the 2026 revenue growth forecast went from "over 30%" to "over 40%" in dollar terms, and Wei announced an additional $100B investment in Arizona — lifting TSMC's cumulative US commitments to roughly $265B.

Why it matters

TSMC is the one company that manufactures nearly every leading-edge AI chip, so its earnings are the closest thing to a measured temperature of the buildout — and this quarter says the heat is still rising. The numbers corroborate what its key supplier reported a day earlier: ASML's second guidance raise and 30% capacity expansion. The $100B Arizona pledge also resets the US-manufacturing race that Micron's $250B program and Samsung and SK hynix's capex surge are running in parallel.

What to watch

How fast the Arizona pledge converts into concrete fab starts (local reports point to additional plants beyond the three announced), and whether the raised capex guide survives any AI-demand wobble in H2.

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